Atrial fibrillation and amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide as independent predictors of prognosis in systolic heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Survival of patients with systolic heart failure (HF) may be influenced by the presence of chronic atrial fibrillation (AF) and circulating concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptides. In this study, we sought to assess the prognostic value of chronic AF in comparison to those of amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) plasma levels and of echocardiographic parameters among HF patients of the entire study population and in those with AF. METHODS: Plasma NT-proBNP levels and echocardiography were prospectively assessed in 489 patients with chronic systolic HF (LV ejection fraction <or=45%) in sinus rhythm or AF (16%). Follow-up duration was 26+/-15 months. RESULTS: Patients with AF were older (p<0.0001), had a worse NYHA class (p=0.002) and higher NT-proBNP levels (p<0.0001) than those in sinus rhythm. Presence of AF (HR [hazards ratio]: 2.01, p=0.013) and plasma NT-proBNP (HR: 3.05, p<0.0001) were the only independent predictors of all-cause mortality. At receiver operating characteristic analyses, the threshold level for outcome prediction of NT-proBNP was higher in patients with AF (3883 pg/ml) than in patients in sinus rhythm (1653 pg/ml). Multivariate analysis performed in patients with HF and AF showed that plasma NT-proBNP was the most important predictor of death after statistic adjustment for age. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic AF and NT-proBNP independently predicted the outcome of patients with HF. The threshold level of NT-proBNP for outcome prediction was different in patients with AF with respect to those in sinus rhythm. NT-proBNP was the most important independent predictor of all-cause mortality in HF patients with AF.